冠心病患者心肌缺血再灌注损伤的危险 因素分析及预测模型效能研究
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陈锐,男,副主任技师,主要从事血栓与止血的实验室检查工作。

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R 541.4

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东莞市社会发展科技项目(20211800904382)


Risk Factors Analysis and Predictive Model Efficacy Study of Myocardial Ischemia-reperfusion Injury in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease
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    摘要:

    摘 要目的:分析冠心病患者心肌缺血再灌注损伤(MIRI)的危险因素,建立预测模型并评估效能。 方法:选择 2021 年 10 月至 2022 年 9 月东莞市东南部中心医院接受溶栓治疗或经皮冠状动脉介入(PCI)治疗的冠心 病患者 80 例为对象,根据患者治疗后是否发生 MIRI 分为对照组(未发生 MIRI 45 例)和观察组(发生 MIRI 35 例)。 查阅所有患者的临床资料,对冠心病患者 MIRI 可能的影响因素进行统计,建立 MIRI 列线图预测模型,并评估模型 预测效能。 结果:80 例冠心病患者中,有 35 例发生 MIRI(43.75 %)。多因素 logistic 回归结果显示,发作到手术时间、 左室射血分数(LVEF)、中性粒细胞计数与淋巴细胞计数比值(NLR)、血小板计数与淋巴细胞计数比值(PLR)、 肌钙蛋白 T(TNT)、脑利钠肽(BNP)是冠心病患者 MIRI 发生的独立危险因素(P < 0.05);本研究构建的列线 图预测模型校准曲线斜率较高,霍斯莫 – 莱梅肖(H–L)拟合优度检验的结果为 χ2 = 1.334,P = 0.323,表明模型拟合 良好;受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线结果显示,曲线下面积为 0.817,95 % CI(0.759,0.871)。 结论:发作到手术 时间、LVEF、NLR、PLR、TNT 及 BNP 是冠心病患者发生 MIRI 的独立危险因素,且基于上述因素构建的预测模型 具有较高的拟合度,预测效能较高。

    Abstract:

    AbstractObjective To analyze the risk factors of myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury (MIRI) in patients with coronary heart disease, establish a predictive model and evaluate its effectiveness. Methods A total of 80 patients with coronary heart disease who received thrombolytic therapy or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treatment at The Southeast General Hospital of Dongguan from October 2021 to September 2022 were selected as the subjects. They were divided into a control group (45 cases without MIRI) and an observation group (35 cases occurred MIRI) based on whether the patients occurred MIRI after treatment. The clinical data of all patients were reviewed, the possible influencing factors of MIRI in patients with coronary heart disease were statistically analyzed, the prediction model of MIRI nomogram was established, and the prediction efficiency of the model was evaluated. Results Among 80 patients with coronary heart disease, 35 cases (43.75%) occurred MIRI. The results of multiple logistic regression showed that the time from onset to surgery, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet count to lymphocyte count ratio (PLR), troponin T (TNT), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were independent risk factors for MIRI in patients with coronary heart disease (P < 0.05); The calibration curve slope of the column chart prediction model constructed in this study was relatively high. The results of the Hosmo-Lemeshau (H-L) goodness of fit test showed that the model fits well with a chi square value of 1.334 and a p-value of 0.323; The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve results showed that the area under the curve was 0.817, 95% CI (0.759, 0.871). Conclusion The time from onset to surgery, LVEF, NLR, PLR, TNT, and BNP are the risk factors for MIRI in patients with coronary heart disease. The predictive model constructed based on these factors in this study has a high degree of fit and predictive efficacy.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-26
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